The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not destroy the country’s nuclear programme and probably only set it back by months, according to an early Pentagon intelligence assessment of the attack.
The Islamic Republic’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not eliminated in the bombings, sources familiar with an evaluation by the Defense Intelligence Agency told the BBC’s US partner CBS.
The White House said the initial damage assessment was “flat-out wrong” and “a clear attempt to demean” President Donald Trump.
The president has said Saturday’s air strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.
The US struck three nuclear facilities in Iran – Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan – with “bunker buster” bombs capable of penetrating 18m (60ft) of concrete or 61m (200ft) of earth before exploding.
But sources familiar with the Pentagon’s intelligence assessment say Iran’s centrifuges are largely “intact” and the impact was limited to aboveground structures.
Entrances to two nuclear facilities were sealed off, and some infrastructure was destroyed or damaged but much of the facilities, which are deep underground, were intact.
The anonymous sources told US media it is estimated the attack only set Iran back “a few months, tops”, and that any resumption of its nuclear programme may be based on how long it takes the country to dig out and make repairs.
Sources also confirmed to CBS that some of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was moved before the strikes, according to the intelligence assessment.
The US 30,000lb (14,000kg) Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb was thought to be the only weapon capable of destroying Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment facilities.
In the hours that followed the Saturday strikes, Gen Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told reporters that it would take time to assess the damage done to the facilities.
But he added that “all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.” Satellite images showed six fresh craters clustered around two entry points at the Fordo nuclear sites, as well as grey dust and debris.
It is unclear from the images, however, how much damage the sites sustained below the surface.
Hassan Abedini, the deputy political director of Iran’s state broadcaster, claimed the three sites targeted by the US had been evacuated a “while ago”, and that Iran “didn’t suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out”.
US officials, on the other hand, hailed the mission as a success, as have Israeli officials.
In a statement on Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that “based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.”
“Anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission,” Hegseth said.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that since hostilities with Iran began on 13 June, Israel has been successful in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as well as destroying its missiles arsenal.
“We have removed two immediate existential threats to us – the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles,” Netanyahu said in video remarks issued by his office.
A report in Saudi news outlet Al Hadath, citing an unnamed Israeli source, said that Israel believes most of Iran’s enriched uranium is buried under the rubble.
The US has more than a dozen intelligence agencies, which can produce conflicting reports based on their mission and area expertise. For example, the origins of the coronavirus remains a debated topic among the intelligence community.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security and an expert on secret nuclear weapons development, said the damage Iran sustained by the US attacks will mean “it will take significant time, investment and energy” for it to restore its nuclear programme.
In a post on X, Albright added that Iran is “under intense scrutiny and observation from the United States and Israel,” and it risks further attacks if it tries to rebuild.
On Monday, Iran had retaliated against the US airstrikes by launching a missile attack on Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is home to thousands of US troops. That attack was largely intercepted, and no casualties or injuries were reported.
Since Iran’s retaliation, President Trump had been urging Israel and Iran to agree to a ceasefire. Both nations acknowledged later in the day that a ceasefire is now in place.
