In the coming weeks, Republicans in Texas and Ohio are expected to redraw their states’ congressional maps. Their intent is transparent: to bolster their party’s chances of protecting its super-slim House majority in next year’s midterm elections.
As it stands now, there are 220 Republican districts, meaning the party can afford a net loss of no more than two seats in 2026 and still keep the House. In theory, the redistricting effort could shift as many as eight seats from the Democratic to the GOP column, although the ultimate yield will depend on how aggressive the GOP gets — and how much the courts and voters will tolerate.
It could also be offset by similar measures from Democrats in blue states like California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to do a redraw of his own but faces a far trickier process.
Yet even if Republicans do emerge from a fresh round of redistricting with a batch of new, safe seats, it may still be woefully insufficient to keep the House, given the dramatic losses that the party in the White House often endures in midterm elections. It was during the first Trump presidency that the GOP coughed up a net 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms, easily losing control of the chamber.
But the structure of the current Republican majority is much different than it was back in ’18. Far fewer GOP seats now are in districts that are politically hostile to Trump and a far greater share are in politically safe Trump landslide districts. Nor are there as many marginal GOP incumbents in districts Trump carried only narrowly in the most recent presidential election.
If successful, the redistricting push would amount to another big difference from 2018: It would give Republicans far more opportunities to play offense this time around.
Consider the distribution of GOP losses in 2018:
As you can see, there was a lot of low-hanging fruit for Democrats, who flipped 22 of the 25 Republican-held districts that Trump lost in the 2016 presidential election. They also picked up about two-thirds of the GOP seats from districts Trump had carried by relatively small margins (less than 7.5 points).
But the damage for Republicans was largely limited to these two categories, though they did suffer a few upsets in solidly pro-Trump districts.
Now compare the GOP majority heading into the 2018 midterms to what it looks like today, heading into 2026:
A bigger share of the current House majority is politically insulated. Fully 61% of Republican seats (134 of 220) are from districts Trump carried by at least 20 points. In 2018, fewer than half of the GOP’s seats were in this category. And more than 80% of GOP seats now are from districts Trump won by at least 12.5 points, compared to 66% in ’18.
And at the other end of the scale, there are now just three GOP seats from anti-Trump districts.
Notably, one of them belongs to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who actually survived the 2018 midterm in a Clinton-won district in Pennsylvania. Another is held by Rep. Mike Lawler in New York; whether he opts to run for governor or seek another House term may determine whether Republicans have a realistic chance of retaining the seat. The third is held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, and it is probably the clearest Democratic pick-up target on the map.
Obviously, Republicans can afford to lose barely any seats. To have any chance of retaining the House, they’ll need to have more success protecting those seats from marginally pro-Trump districts than they did in 2018, when most of them flipped to the Democrats.
But if they can limit those losses, that’s when redistricting could come in. For Republicans, it holds the promise of expanding this category:
For all of their setbacks in 2018, it’s worth remembering that Republicans did actually flip three Democratic-held districts, all of which had voted for Trump two years prior. Two were in Minnesota, and the other one was in Pennsylvania — where a new, court-drawn map went into effect in 2018, with that redistricting essentially blowing up a previously Democratic district.
Redistricting in Ohio and Texas would likely mean more districts like this for Republicans to target.
For instance, Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes now represents an Ohio district that only barely voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris last year. Under a redraw, those lines could shift to make it a solidly pro-Trump district.
Similarly, Democrat Marcy Kaptur already represents another Ohio district that went for Trump, but a redraw could make it much redder — and much harder for her to hold on in 2026. With the margins in the House so fine, the majority could depend on it.
