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The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@hotmail.com and tweets @20_Inam
During the very first week of this year, on January 3, the US conducted Operation ‘Absolute Resolve’ to kidnap President Maduro of Venezuela along with his wife from capital Caracas, at night when both were asleep is a discreet safehouse. The Operation was long in the offing ‘ostensibly’ for Venezuelan oil and other riches, although Maduro was no saint. Almost a year in the planning, the CIA bought loyalties of Maduro’s inner circle in a sordid tale of betrayal.
Sea flotilla, stealth helicopters, Delta force, covert agents and law enforcement personnel raided one of Maduro’s residences at Fuerte Tiuna. Over 150 USAF planes suppressed Venezuelan air defences. Carrier group Iowa Jima, and marines were placed, just in case. The operation was successfully conducted within 150 minutes with clinical military precision and brilliance. This operation occurred exactly 35 years after American forces had invaded Panama to haul Manual Noriega on January 3, 1990 during Operation ‘Just Cause’. Maduro also, like Noriega, was charged with drug smuggling and other crimes in the US.
The recently released National Security Strategy by Trump Administration reiterates US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, especially in Americas, particularly in Latin America, America’s presumed backyard, where Washington has historically intervened. During, and after the Cold War (1947-1991), the US conducted regime change operations to remove left-wing Soviet/Russian-backed leaders in numerous coup d’états, in economic and military interventions and domination operations, in most of the 35 countries in North/Central America (Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Guatemala, etc); South America (Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, etc); and the Caribbean (Grenada, Cuba, Haiti, Dominic Republic, etc).
America annexed Puerto Rico after the Spanish-American War (1898). ‘Banana Wars’ in 20th Century against the ‘Banana republics’ (Columbia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, etc) were aimed at promoting American business interests. The long history of US intelligence, military and intervention operations include Guatemala in the 1950s, Cuba, Ecuador and Brazil in 1960s, Bolivia in 1960s and 70s, Chile in 1970s, El Salvador, Panama and Grenada in 1980s. President Ford (1974-77) conducted Operation ‘Condor’ in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay against communist regimes and groups.
Truman Doctrine of Containment (1947) was reinforced through National Security Council Paper-68 (NSC-68) in 1950, and almost all interventions were authorised by the US Congress, a ‘debated’ mandatory constitutional requirement for the President/Commander-in-Chief. Likewise, for operations elsewhere, like in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US always made recourse to UN authorisation, besides Congressional approvals. Venezuela, however, is unprecedented without either authorisation, under an unprecedented presidency.
Washington today is characterised by a president who scoffs at bipartisan support; feels uninhabited by legality and constitutionalism; prefers his own moral judgement to international law; and chooses direct military interventions abroad rather than diplomacy, for presumably masked objectives. Iran bombing in 2025 and Venezuela 2026 are surprising and dangerous precedents from a superpower that is eroding the very basis of an international order, that it painstakingly helped to create during and after the great wars in 20th Century.
Trump and his team have unambiguously threatened to acquire Greenland, another self-governing country under US ally Denmark, militarily, if diplomacy fails. The raison d’etre is Denmark/NATO’s inability to defend Greenland robustly against Russo-Chinese dominance, threatening the US national security. Analysts, however, cite quest for rare-earths, minerals and territorial expansion as other reasons. NATO is finding ways to appease America.
Besides, the cited unilateralism, Trump’s intentions in Iran and claims on Panama Canal have important ramifications. First, the US unilateralism would encourage other powers like China, Russia and India, for example, to evoke US precedence for violating territorial integrity of sovereign nations. Russia would justify attack on Ukraine based on the ‘backyard argument’; as Ukraine and Central Asia are backyard to Russia, just like Latin America is to the US. Besides, upending the International Order, this would inject Global uncertainty and volatility, as argued by former US official Fiona Hill in The New York Times.
Second, whereas the US dominance of its Latin American backyard may have some takers, given the cited historic precedence; snatching Greenland from a long-time ally in Europe is quite another ballgame. And Trump is not going to relent, if his Administration’s mood is any guide. This will potentially tear apart NATO, leading to possible military showdown, as warned by some Danish officials; and damage the carefully curated trans-Atlantic alliance that is already under stress because of tariff war and presumed differences on Ukraine. Trump’s disdain for ‘old’ Europe not taking responsibility for its own defence, instead preferring the US security umbrella, is too well known.
Third, one of the most enduring reasons for collapse of the erstwhile empires, from Byzantine to Roman to Ottoman to the British, has been ‘strategic overstretch’. A US fighting Israel’s wars in the Middle East; financing Europe’s war in Ukraine; ensuring deployment worldwide especially in Latin America, to counter China’s aggressive presence; fighting Islamist resurgence in places like Afghanistan and Syria; threatening Iran; seizing Russian and other nations’ oil tankers on high seas; and then ensuring global dollar and economic dominance, all at the same time, under an Administration that is increasingly becoming less popular domestically, is surely an overstretch in geo-strategic parlance. And ‘overstretch’ leads to collapse, sometimes unexpectedly and suddenly.
Fourth, America undoubtedly fields one of the best military machines globally. Its military experience is, however, limited to small-scale operations against weak states, mainly in OOTW (operations other than war) domain. Moreover, overcoming weak nations like Panama, Afghanistan (initially), Iraq and Venezuela through military blitzkrieg may lead to wrong lessons.
One reckons the US deep state to be alive to the perils and pitfalls of opening too many fronts simultaneously, but the body language of some responsible US officials, unfortunately, is increasingly subservient, servile and succumbing to an overconfident, arrogant and aggressive presidency. Politician, buoyed with military confidence after possessing such formidable hammer, naturally and understandably, look at everything as nail, if not restrained.
It is hard to fathom ‘some’ public support that the Administration enjoys over Venezuela, but at times the silent majority decides to remain silent to enable history to take a turn.
We may be at the cusp of another (World) War… who knows!
