Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party is in a moment of crisis as nearly two-thirds of its legislators risk losing their posts through a mass referendum.
Starting this weekend, voters across 31 districts in Taiwan will weigh in on whether they want to keep or remove their members of parliament.
The “Great Recall”, as it has been dubbed locally, is the largest vote of its kind in Taiwan’s history and, depending on the results, could cost the KMT its majority coalition in the country’s legislature.
The outcome will set the tone for Taiwan’s domestic politics for the next three years and also shape the ability of President William Lai Ching-te’s government to act on key issues, such as defence spending.
When will the recall election take place?
On Saturday, eligible voters can participate in recall votes for 24 KMT legislators, followed by a second round of voting for seven KMT legislators in late August.
The recall has been called following a wave of successful petition campaigns earlier this year. Under Taiwan’s election laws, organisers must secure signatures from 10 percent of a district’s registered voters to hold a recall vote.
For a recall vote to succeed, 25 percent of registered voters in each district must participate, and the recall must receive more votes in favour than against.
If voters choose to recall a legislator, a by-election must be held within three months.
The KMT’s traditional stronghold is in the north of the country and notably around the capital city of Taipei, but recall votes will be held across Taiwan this weekend.
The KMT won 52 out of 113 seats in the legislature in 2024, and with the Taiwan People’s Party and two independent legislators, holds a 62-seat majority coalition.
That coalition has been strong enough to block the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which holds 51 seats, and stall the agenda of the country’s DPP President Lai during his first year in office.
Can the recall succeed?
Taiwan typically has high voter turnout during major elections, but recall votes are much more of a wildcard, said Lev Nachman, an expert in Taiwanese politics at National Taiwan University.
“Our prior experience should tell us that these should not pass. However, we’ve never seen mobilisation work like this at recalls before,” he told Al Jazeera, citing the widespread involvement of common people. “We are in a bit of unprecedented times.”
Ho Chih-yung, KMT member and former party spokesperson, told Al Jazeera the recall campaign had created a “national election-like atmosphere” that would test the mobilisation and engagement of Taiwan’s major political parties.
The weather could also tip the scales, he said, as a tropical storm is passing north of Taiwan, and the bad weather may discourage the KMT’s older voter base from going out to vote.
Why is the recall vote international news?
The vote will determine if Lai will be a lame-duck president for the next three years, and whether he has the ability to carry out key defence and foreign policy initiatives, Nachman said.
“Unfortunately, it’s a really big deal because every question that foreign policy people have is contingent upon whether these recalls are successful or not successful,” he said.
The issue carries global significance due to Taiwan’s contested political status and the threat of a future conflict involving China in the Taiwan Strait.
“The classic Taiwan problem is that it’s not just that society is split, it’s that society is split, and the clock is ticking about whether or not there’s going to be a war over this place,” he added.
“Everything here is infinitely more existential.”
Why are voters targeting the KMT?
Despite its success in the last election, picking up 14 seats, the KMT has angered voters and even alienated traditional supporters by trying to expand legislative powers and targeting President Lai’s budget.
The KMT majority in the legislature was able to freeze or cut 207.5 billion New Taiwan dollars (then worth $6.3bn) from Lai’s 2025 budget – impacting everything from Taiwan’s submarine and drone programmes to its Council of Indigenous Peoples.
The budget fight was headline news across Taiwan, but it piqued international interest when the KMT targeted $3.1bn in defence spending.
Brian Hoie, a non-resident fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub and a frequent commentator on Taiwanese politics, said some of the cuts angered a cross-section of voters and groups traditionally aligned with the KMT, such as farmers and Indigenous voters.
“The KMT has done very badly and angered all these random demographics by cutting the budget,” he said.
“That was just very unstrategic,” he added.
What about the China factor?
The KMT is one of the oldest political parties in Asia, but a generational divide over Taiwan’s relationship with China is challenging its longstanding position in Taiwanese politics. Some voters believe that the party has been co-opted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.
The CCP has threatened to one day annex Taiwan by peace or by force, and Taiwan’s two main political parties offer different approaches for how to respond to Beijing’s threat.
President Lai’s DPP has taken a more outspoken approach by advocating for Taiwan on the international stage and ramping up defence spending, while the KMT follows a more conciliatory approach that favours ongoing dialogue with China.
Fears surrounding China have in the past unseated some of the KMT’s most prominent members, such as party whip Fu Kun-chi, who controversially led a delegation of lawmakers to Beijing last year at a time of significant political tension in the Taiwan Strait.
What does the KMT say?
Party member and former KMT spokesperson Ho said the recall supporters were abusing a system designed to remove individuals deemed unfit for holding their posts for serious reasons, such as corruption.
“This ‘mass recall’ campaign is not driven by the individual performance of KMT legislators, but is instead a blanket attempt to unseat opposition lawmakers across the board,” Ho said.
“To advance this effort, the DPP has deliberately framed the KMT as ‘pro-China’ and accused it of ‘selling out Taiwan’, a tactic designed to inflame ideological divisions and mobilise its base through fear and hostility, thereby increasing the likelihood that the recall votes will pass,” he said.
A senior KMT party member also told Al Jazeera that voters may be looking for an outlet for their frustrations amid a rising cost of living and the economic stress resulting from United States President Donald Trump’s trade war and threat of tariffs on Taiwan.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 32 percent on the island-nation’s export-driven economy. Over the past six months, the New Taiwan dollar has appreciated 11 percent, impacting the bottom line of thousands of small and medium domestic manufacturers who must compete with foreign goods becoming cheaper for Taiwan’s consumers as their dollars go further in terms of spending power.
